FAILED CYCLONE FORECASTING.

Barrier Miner, 6 April, 1912.

THE LOSS OF THE KOOMBANA

After a long suspense the worst

has been realised in connection

the Koombana. It is an appalling

thing that a modern steamer (built

about four years ago), of about 3,600

tons, should be totally lost together

with about 130 people on board. The

gale which the steamer encountered 

was one of the most severe which has 

been recorded on that coast. 

When the weather forecasts for West 

Australia were issued by the Perth 

Observatory, warnings were given when 

there were indications that one of these 

storms was approaching, and shipping 

remained in port or made preparations 

for it. Since the forecasts have been 

prepared by the Meteorological Bureau 

in Melbourne, this plan has not been 

followed. When the meteorological work 

was being undertaken by the Federal 

authorities, Mr. W. E. Cooke, the Government 

astronomer at Perth pointed out that it 

would be impossible to predict the

weather for the whole of Australia from 

Melbourne as accurately as it could be done

from Perth. 

The forecasting of these gales in the northwest 

was among several things which he said, West 

Australia would lose by the change. But many 

people do attach much value to weather forecasts 

- that is people who are not directly concerned - 

and they complained of the cost of getting 

telegrams, giving the necessary data, from the 

telegraph stations.

At the Inquiry the following was recommended:

"It would help if the various officers on the 

coast exchanged information direct,

provided they understood what it conveyed.

Postmasters, speaking generally, were very
reliable in the matter of weather reports."

The gale in which the Koombana and other

shipping was lost was not predicted, and 

these disasters recall with some emphasis

the statement made by Mr. Cooke several

years ago. It is scarcely fair to blame the

Commonwealth Meteorologist (Mr. Hunt)

for not having predicted the storm, as the

data that he is able to receive from that

quarter is limited. It is more a fault in the

system of endeavoring to forecast for

the whole of Australia from Melbourne.

That is what Mr. Cooke pointed out at the

time. As in other things connected with 

the government and administration, the

central system has its disadvantages in

this. 

Those who do not understand or

appreciate the work of weather

forecasting complain of the cost, and

insist on cutting down expense.

When Mr. Wragge was doing such

excellent work as Government astronomer

in Queensland some years ago, he was 

subjected to the same kind of annoyances,

and eventually is work was so handicapped

by the shortage of funds that he gave it

up altogether. It is rather interesting to 

notice that these two States which did

not appreciate the forecasts have 

experienced two of the worst ship

wrecks ever recorded in Australian

waters, quite recently the Yongala,

in Queensland waters, and the 

Koombana off the coast of West

Australia. 

The shipping people as always appreciated 

the storm warnings, and were guided by 

them. But there is still a large number of 

people who put more confidence in the 

indications given of change in the weather 

by a corn or gouty foot than in scientific 

information. The unfortunate thing is these 

quacks have a good deal to do with the 

management of things. They are to be 

found in parliaments and  even Ministries. 

It is these, with their silly ideas and ignorance 

of value of proper information, who have 

been responsible for the refusal of money 

for carrying on the observatories in a proper

way.

A scathing condemnation.

The wreck of the Koombana

and the Yongala might have been

prevented had warning been given

of approaching gales. In all probability

this would have been done had the

system once in use not been destroyed 

by the refusal of a reasonable sum of 

money to keep up the stations. Of

course these are not the only results

of the change, but they are emphatic

examples. 

Australia has from time to time given 

handsome amounts of money for 

Antarctic exploration, one of the objects 

of which was said to be the securing 

of information in that region that would 

be of use in  foretelling weather. The 

South Pole has now been reached and 

a good deal is hinted at concerning the 

valuable scientific information that

has been obtained. That has been the

case after the return of each expedition,

and the excuse for not publishing details

at the time is that it will need some months

to prepare it.  But is is never disclosed, and

the only sensible conclusion to arrive at is

that no information of any special value 

has been obtained from that quarter. What

information, scientific or otherwise, has ever

been obtained from the polar regions, Arctic

or Antarctic, that has been put to any practical

use?

No beating about the bush.

It is evident that the information that is

wanted for weather forecasting in Australia

is to be obtained much nearer home. If

storms are to be foretold with useful

consequences it will be necessary to 

have the records of the scientific

instruments over the whole country

recorded with as much pains as when

each State had supervision over its own.

The perils of the sea cannot be altogether

guarded against, but the dangers can be

reduced by proper precautions to meet

the weather conditions. For the rest, 

protection will have to be sought in another

quarter. There have been too many 

mysterious disappearances at sea during

the last few years. 

The modern passenger steamer should 

not depend for her safety on luck in not 

meeting with storms. She should be able 

to live through them whatever their fury, 

and not be greatly retarded in her progress 

by an adverse gale. But it is the modern 

steamer that provides the most sensational 

disasters. Both the Bullarra and the Koombana 

were in the recent gale, and the old Bullarra

weathered it, certainly after after a very

severe buffeting. The recent disasters

make one doubtful whether, after all, 

whether the iron or steel vessel can 

stand the storms that the old wooden

sailing vessels encountered, many of

them standing for half a century. They

did not rely upon dodging storms, but

upon living through them.

A parting shot, 'the old Bullarra weathered it'....

Cairns Post, 11 April, 1912. 

The Lost Koombana

.

What Wragge Says

(By Telegraph.)

PERTH, Wednesday.-. In connection 

with the loss off Port Headland, on the 

north-west coast, of the Adelaide 

Steamship Company's fine steamer 

Koombana, Mr. Clement Wragge, who 

at one time was in charge of the 

Queensland Meteorological Department, 

has written to the papers on storm 

forecasting.

Mr. Wragge, in effect, states that

if the Central Weather Bureau in

Brisbane were in existence now,

three days' warning, at least, would 

have been given of the recent cyclone 

which caused such destruction and loss 

of life, and the wrecking of the Koombana.

There is much discussion and comment

here on the subject matter of Mr. Wragge's

letter.

STORM WARNINGS.

To the Editor.

Sir-.Just allow me to say in simple justice 

that if the Central Weather Bureau,

Brisbane, had been in existence, the 

annual vote for which did not exceed £1,500

per annum, three days warning at least

would .have been given of the recent cyclone 

off the north-west coast of Australia.

-I am. etc,

CLEMENT L. WRAGGE.

Chiltern, Victoria, March 29, 1912.

These reports pointed to a very serious issue and failure of the federal system which could, possibly, have prevented the two disasters. The following link explores this issue in the context of the Yongala disaster and illustrates just how successfully the regional system operated in the late 1800's.

https://yongalarevisited.blogspot.com/2016/11/there-was-no-cyclone-prediction-or.html

The following extracts reveal that there was a very real physical reason for the failed predictions on the Nor'West coast:

The Telegraph, Brisbane, 20 April, 1912.

WILLY-WILLIES;

'Terrors' of North-west.

The loss of the steamer Koombana has

increased the desire of the Commonwealth

meteorologist (Mr. Hunt) to learn more

of the dreaded willy-willies that visit the

northwestern coast of Australia between

December and April, and cause such wide

spread disaster. "He purposes, with the

consent of the Minister for Home Affairs

(Mr.' O'Malley), to visit that portion of

Australia this year, and endeavour to

gather all the information possible with

respect to willy-willies, so that he may

collate the information, with a view to

arriving at a more satisfactory means of

anticipating disturbances and of warning

vessels.

"The data regarding willy-willies," said

Mr. Hunt to a Melbourne "Argus" reporter, 

"do not extend back more than 12 years, 

and another disadvantage is that

anemometers and other instruments with

which the Federal Government equipped

the whole of the north-west coast have

been destroyed by the willy-willys, the

velocity of which they had been placed

there to register. They were not blown

away, but were destroyed by flying debris.

courtesy Trove.